It seems like the company’s high-single-digit sales growth target could be in jeopardy due to several factors, including boycotts and increased competition from local brands like Anta and Li Ning.
China plays a significant role in Nike’s overall sales, accounting for about 17% of their revenue and over 20% of their profits. However, ever since the Xinjiang cotton boycott began in March 2021, sales growth in China has slowed down, which is a cause for concern.
One major factor impacting Nike’s performance in China is the boycott initiated by Western brands, including Nike, due to concerns over forced labor in Xinjiang. The boycott has had an impact on major wholesalers like Pou Sheng International, which saw a slowdown in sales growth after the boycott and the COVID-19 outbreak.
Moreover, Nike is facing tough competition from local brands like Anta and Li Ning. These brands are investing heavily in sales and marketing while launching premium products, some priced above $200. They have achieved sales growth rates of 15% or more in China, posing a direct challenge to Nike’s market share.
Looking at Nike’s recent financial results, their Greater China revenue grew by only 1% on a currency-neutral basis in Q3 FY23, but declined by 8% on a reported basis. Nike attributed this weakness to COVID-19 and the closure of retail stores. The management team remains confident that China will continue to be a growth driver in the long run, but analysts have raised concerns about the competitive landscape and the impact of local brands.
In addition to China, Nike’s performance in other regions, like North America and Europe, is also worth considering. The pandemic and retail store closures affected sales in North America, but they have seen some growth recently. However, Nike has been dealing with excess inventory, which may affect their year-over-year growth in the near future. In Europe, Nike has witnessed positive trends but faces strong competition from Adidas and expects normal high-single-digit growth.
When it comes to valuing Nike, analysts predict a more conservative growth rate for the Greater China business, assuming mid-single-digit growth, while Europe and North America are expected to grow around 6%. These assumptions lead to a normalized group sales growth rate of 6% in their valuation model.
Considering all these factors, it becomes clear that Nike’s growth prospects in China are not as promising as before, and a revision of their long-term growth target seems likely. As a result, the risk of lowering the target is imminent, which is why some experts recommend avoiding investment in Nike at this time.
