Schwab’s U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) is gaining attention as an attractive investment option in the evolving market landscape. With the current dominance of growth stocks, the prospect of a rotation towards value stocks becomes increasingly plausible.
Investment Thesis
The market has witnessed a remarkable surge in growth stocks this year, with many technology companies experiencing significant year-to-date gains. These gains were driven by optimistic expectations of Federal funds rate cuts in 2023 and the excitement surrounding generative AI solutions. ETFs tracking major indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have seen substantial rallies, given their significant exposure to the technology sector. However, recent macroeconomic developments and overbought conditions among major growth stocks suggest that a rotation toward value stocks may be on the horizon.
SCHD is well-positioned to benefit from such a rotation. It offers exposure to high-dividend yield American companies across various sectors, with a minimal allocation to the technology sector. The portfolio is diversified among industries like industrials, healthcare, financials, consumer defense, and energy. The ETF holds over a hundred stocks, with none of them individually representing more than 5% of the portfolio.
Why Consider SCHD

Contrarian Opportunity: SCHD presents a contrarian opportunity with its 7% year-to-date decline. In a market characterized by rotations, SCHD stands to benefit from a potential shift from growth to value stocks.

Overbought Growth Stocks: Many growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have reached overbought levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of growth stocks is trending upward, despite disappointing earnings in Q3. This overvaluation indicates the need for a rebalancing.

Unfavorable Environment for Growth Stocks: High-interest rates are affecting the valuations of growth stocks, as their earnings projections depend on discount rates and long-term growth expectations. Higher rates reduce the present value of future cash flows, affecting growth stocks’ valuations. The recent softening of corporate earnings guidance underscores this challenge.

Government Spending and Economic Growth: Massive federal investments in infrastructure and various government initiatives are set to support economic growth, even as challenges persist within and outside the U.S. These initiatives are expected to sustain economic activity and inflation, potentially leading to a prolonged period of higher interest rates.

Risks to the Thesis
While the outlook for SCHD is positive, several risks should be considered:

Change in Fed’s Rhetoric: A shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve could lead to increased optimism among growth investors, potentially undermining the rotation towards value stocks.

Technological Breakthroughs: The introduction of a groundbreaking technological innovation in the technology sector could divert attention back to growth stocks.

In Conclusion
SCHD’s “Strong Buy” rating is supported by the current market dynamics favoring a potential rotation from growth to value stocks. The ETF’s exposure to high-dividend yield American companies, combined with the overvaluation of growth stocks and unfavorable interest rate conditions, make it an attractive choice.
As the market continues to evolve, SCHD offers investors the opportunity to diversify their portfolios and position themselves for potential shifts in investment trends. With high-quality dividend stocks in its top holdings offering attractive forward dividend yields, SCHD remains a compelling option in the ever-changing investment landscape.