An interesting investment opportunity exists with Genesis Energy, L.P. (NYSE:GEL), and their current outlook appears to be improving significantly. Despite experiencing a slightly challenging start this year, there are positive signs for the first time in over a decade. Their units saw a decline of approximately 4.7% in 2022 and another ~4.6% this year. However, the management has consistently raised guidance and recently reiterated their 2023 guidance despite a slight miss in one of their segments.

The recent miss was primarily attributed to the coldest weather in the Rocky Mountains in 23 years, causing disruptions in their soda ash business. Fortunately, the impact was offset by other segments exceeding estimates.

When considering their financials, Genesis Energy presents a conservative EBITDA guidance of $780-$810 million for 2023. Additionally, their distribution coverage is rated as “very strong,” indicating a low risk of distribution reduction in the future.

While DT Analysis expressed some concerns, it is worth noting that GEL’s debt situation is not as severe as suggested, and their borrowing for capital expenditures is expected to generate significant cash flow.

The future outlook for Genesis Energy remains promising, particularly for the years 2023-2025. They have several exciting projects in progress, including the expansion of soda ash production capabilities and new oil production facilities. Furthermore, their offshore pipelines, especially those connected to major platforms, are expected to perform exceptionally well.

Regarding valuation, GEL is currently at a lower multiple compared to their historical average. A conservative valuation approach indicates a potential upside of over 70% from the current price of GEL units.