BlackLine, Inc. (BL), a leading provider of comprehensive cloud solutions for accounting and finance automation, is facing challenges that have resulted in a significant decline in its stock value. The company’s shares have dropped by approximately 45% due to a combination of macroeconomic pressures and a muted demand outlook. While BlackLine has managed to achieve strong profitability through operating efficiencies and headcount optimization, there are concerns about its net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and dollar churn among its customers, particularly in the enterprise and mid-market segments.
One of the key concerns for BlackLine is the decline in its net new ARR. In the past quarter, net new ARR dropped by 13% year-over-year to $16 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline. This trend raises worries about the demand for BlackLine’s services in the near term. Additionally, the company’s management has revised its revenue guidance for the fiscal year, suggesting a flat environment for the remainder of the year and implying modest growth at the mid-point. The lengthening of sales cycles, de-prioritization in budgets, and pauses in pipeline development have all contributed to these challenges.
Renewal rates for enterprises have also been impacted, with rates remaining around 97%, lower than the long-term average of 98-99%. This is due to dollar churn and customer loss caused by vendor consolidation. Even in the mid-market segment, there has been a decline in gross retention, indicating a slowdown in growth. These challenges led BlackLine to announce its second round of layoffs, reducing its workforce by 9%, following a 5% reduction just a year prior. This further highlights the difficulties the company faces in the current market.
The company’s financials reveal both positive and negative aspects. While BlackLine reported Q2 revenues that were in line with estimates, the growth rate has decelerated to 13% year-over-year, down from 16% in the previous quarter. Subscription revenue also showed deceleration, growing at 13% year-over-year. However, the silver lining is the improvement in operating margins, which reached 14.4%, a significant increase year-over-year. This improvement was achieved through cost controls and operating efficiencies.
BlackLine’s valuation indicates that it is trading at a discount compared to its peers. Its forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 32x, which is lower than the peer average of 40x (excluding WK) and its forward Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) ratio is 5.6x compared to the peer average of 7.0x. This discount is seen as justifiable given the challenges BlackLine faces in the near term, including the weakening outlook due to macroeconomic pressures and user churn. As a result, the initiation rating for BlackLine is “Hold.”
In conclusion, BlackLine is grappling with near-term headwinds that have resulted in a significant decline in its stock value. While it has managed to improve operating margins, concerns about its ARR growth and dollar churn persist. The company’s stock currently trades at a discount, reflecting the challenges it faces in the current market environment. The rating for BlackLine is “Hold,” indicating a need for caution as the company navigates these challenges.